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What Role Does China Intend To Play In The Us Military Alliance?

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Despite the fierce trade war that China is waging with America and the policy of neutrality in the military conflicts that took place in the oil-rich Gulf region, which is vital for the Chinese economy, this time it did not rule out participating in the international maritime military alliance that Washington is forming to “guard oil tankers.” in the Strait of Hormuz.

“In the event that maritime navigation becomes unsafe in the Gulf, we will consider accompanying our naval fleet to merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz,” Reuters news agency quoted the Chinese ambassador to Abu Dhabi, Ni Jian, as saying on Tuesday evening. Ambassador Jian added: “We are studying the American proposal to arrange for warships to accompany commercial vessels.” Last month, the United States called on more than 60 countries to participate in this naval military alliance to protect the security of the navigation of commercial tankers in the Gulf.

So far, Washington has found a response from Britain, but the invitation has not been accepted by important countries, including France and Germany, which are seeking to put forward a separate European initiative on the security of the navigation of merchant ships in the Gulf. US President Donald Trump, in an indirect tweet on June 24, called on China, Japan and other countries to protect their oil supplies that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

“China gets 91% of oil supplies from tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and Japan gets 62%, along with other countries,” Trump said in the tweet. So, why are we protecting waterways for so many years for these oil supplies and not getting financial compensation? And for all of this Countries protect their oil tankers in the Gulf. But it is not known whether there was an official invitation extended by US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to Beijing during his tour to build this alliance last July.

3 scenarios paint a bleak picture of oil and the global economy

But what role will China play if it participates? And which side will support its naval vessels, will it support the United States and its allies in the Gulf, or will it support Iran? This is the question that preoccupies the minds of experts on energy and security strategies in Western capitals, as it is known that China has commercial and oil interests with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and has important investments with Tehran in energy projects.

Unlike the United States, which has become almost satisfied with oil after the shale oil revolution, the economic growth machine in China depends on oil imported from Russia and the Gulf states. It is also no secret that there is a strategic alliance between Beijing and Moscow to besiege Trump’s plans for the unilateralism of the “world order.” Thus, China is not far from the ongoing race between Moscow and Washington for dominance over global energy security, supplies and prices.

Western experts believe that China fears that America will use the security of navigation in the Gulf and use it to deprive it of the flow of oil, even for a while, amid the ongoing escalation in the trade war. Therefore, the role that China wants to play in the Gulf as the largest global oil importer cannot be separated from its oil interests and its alliance with Moscow within the strategy of dominating energy security implemented by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Beijing has a joint defense agreement with the UAE. The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed, visited Beijing about two months ago, and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and signed with him an agreement of a joint defense and military alliance. Ambassador Jian also said the agreement may in the future deal with intelligence sharing, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

How does Moscow serve its interests through the Iranian-American tension?

In terms of Beijing’s rapprochement with Tehran and its tacit support in its struggle against Washington, this role is evident in China’s failure to implement the US embargo on Iranian oil, as the New York Times revealed in a report on Saturday that about 12 large Iranian oil tankers unloaded their shipments in Asian ports. and Middle Eastern.

And since the second of last May, China has had the lion’s share of it. The New York Times report said that at least six Iranian oil tankers had unloaded their cargo in Chinese ports, while the rest crossed the Suez Canal, and they may have unloaded their cargo in Syria. It is known that buying Iranian oil does not violate international law, because the oil embargo on Iran, which is currently implemented, is a unilateral American embargo.

But the countries and international companies that import and trade in oil obey the American will, for fear of the sanctions imposed by the US Treasury on those who violate its ban, in what is known as the “secondary ban.” The “secondary ban” punishes companies and countries by depriving them of trading with America and the use of the dollar and its financial instruments, including bonds, shares, and others.

According to data published by I Anson Mail, an economist at the American company Kepler, which monitors the movement of commercial ships transporting goods, “since the cancellation of waivers last November and the activation of the American decision to zero Iranian exports, Iranian oil shipments have declined from 2.5 million barrels per day to 500 1,000 barrels per day, and most of these shipments go to China.”

This is how Washington uses the tension in the Gulf to dominate energy globally

According to the data of the economist Anson, China was importing about 500,000 barrels per day from Iran before the tightening of the embargo, but these exports fell to 360,000 barrels per day after the embargo was tightened. This means that Beijing has only implemented the US embargo by a small percentage.

But China’s strategy in using Gulf oil and exploiting the need of both Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, and Abu Dhabi, goes beyond the goals of oil supplies to serve the goals of winning the fierce trade war with the United States, which is gradually turning into a cold war-like confrontation between Moscow and Washington.

The most important of these goals is to weaken the dollar as an international trade and reserve currency and to internationalize the yuan by introducing it as a currency to buy oil that competes with the dollar. In this regard, Beijing is seeking to convert its oil sales from dollars to the “golden yuan”, which it introduced last year as an alternative currency to the dollar in executing futures contracts on the Shanghai Oil Exchange when it was launched.

Experts believe that if a currency war erupts between it and Washington, China may be forced to force some Gulf oil countries that depend for their oil exports on the Chinese market to switch to selling their oil in the golden yuan.

And applying such a measure, if it happens, will be harmful to the future of the dollar as an international reserve currency, because the dollar relies for a large part of its strength as the official currency for buying oil, since it abandoned the gold standard in the mid-seventies.

The volume of oil deals in global energy markets is estimated at about $1.71 trillion annually. Thus, there are many question marks about the role that Beijing will play in the security of the Gulf.

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